Izzo, Morgan Come To The Barn For Round Two

Likely still reeling from the loss to the Indiana Hoosiers, Tubby Smith's Gophers will need to pick themselves up in short order, forget about the heartbreaking loss on Thursday and come with their best performance of the year if they are going to upend the 11th ranked Michigan State Spartans Sunday afternoon.

Expectations for the Gophers season spiked after they went to East Lansing to face these same Spartans for the Big Ten opener. Because the Gophers had previously struggled mightily on the road against top-notch opponents--think UNLV and Florida State--the line of thinking was the Spartans would win handily. But the Gophers exceeded expectations and had numerous chances to upset Tom Izzo's Spartans.

The Gophers stayed in that game, in part, because they forced the Spartans to shoot outside, playing a lot of 2-3 zone. The Spartans shot just 20 percent from beyond the arc. Specifically, Drew Neitzel struggled, shooting 0-6 from three. But the Gophers didn't have an answer for sophomore phenom Raymar Morgan, who put up a career high 31 points, adding 10 rebounds to boot.

The Spartans also did well to push the ball up the floor after Minnesota possessions. The Gophers didn't get back on defense well, and Morgan and others benefited. To pull the upset on Sunday, the Gophers will need to slow Morgan and make sure they don't give the Spartans easy transition baskets.

The Gophers were also hurt during the Big Ten opener on the glass. The Spartans out-rebounded the Gophers 48-25. If such a discrepancy exists again, the Gophers will lose.

And as has too often been the case, Dan Coleman disappeared in a big game. He found himself in early foul trouble early and finished with a measly six points and two rebounds. That, too, can't happen again.

So, there are the reasons for pessimism: The Gophers might not have had time to recover from the loss to Indiana. The Gophers have no answer for Morgan. The Spartans are a superior team in transition and on the glass.

But, there are reasons to think an upset is feasible as well.

The fact is, since the conference season began, Sparty has been unimpressive. After the opening win against the Gophers, the Spartans held off an upstart Purdue team at home by three. Then the Spartans went to Iowa City and watched as the lowly Hawkeyes slowed down the pace of the game to win 43-36. Back at home against Ohio State on Tuesday, the Spartans jumped out to a quick lead in the first half by pushing tempo. But, again, Ohio State slowed tempo and the Spartans looked very beatable.

Their trip to Williams Arena will be just their second road conference game of the season. If the Spartans struggled in Iowa, it's safe to assume they could struggle in Minneapolis.

Keys to the Game:

** Dan Coleman needs to show up this time.

** Spencer Tollackson needs to bounce back.

** Lawrence Westbrook and Lawrence McKenzie need to lessen MSU's edge in the back court. MSU's Neitzel, Travis Walton and Kalin Lucas bring different strengths to the floor. Slowing down this group, forcing turnovers and pressuring their three-point attempts will be key.

** The Gophers desperately need to find an answer for Raymar Morgan. Damian Johnson has started two straight games drawing defensive match ups against Geary Claxton, and at times, Eric Gordon. I expect to see the Gophers put Johnson on Morgan, who abused Jamal Abu-Shamala in East Lansing.

** Slow the tempo. The Gophers need to find a balance between getting easy baskets in transition and frustrating the Spartans by slowing the game down. We need to run when we can but orchestrate quality, time-consuming possessions the vast majority of the time.

** Execute down the stretch. Even in the comeback at Penn State, the Gophers gave the Nittany Lions three chances in the last minute to win the game. A late turnover cost us against Indiana. The Gophers need to make their free throws if this is a close game and get good shots when the game is on the line. So far this season, we haven't done that.

Prediction: It would be easy for me to pick the Gophers, pointing to MSU's struggles on the road against Iowa. But I don't think the Gophers have an answer for Morgan. And the Spartans will not take the Gophers lightly. They will come ready to play--and have had since Tuesday to prepare for this game. Meanwhile, the Gophers could well be still recovering from the IU loss. I think the Gophers lose another close one: 69-64.

Tubby v. Izzo Saturday Night

The scheduling Gods did Tubby Smith and the Golden Gophers no favors, as they open Big Ten play Saturday night with a trip to East Lansing to take on the league's premier coach and team.

A few years from now it will be interesting to see who is getting the best of this coaching match-up, but for now Tom Izzo and his Michigan State Spartans are clearly among the cream of the crop in the Big Ten. In their careers, Izzo and Smith have met seven times, with Izzo holding a 4-3 head-to-head advantage. The Gophers will need quite a few breaks this weekend for Smith to even that mark.

The Spartans are simply loaded as far as Big Ten teams go. Drew Neitzel is the kind of play-making guard that teams need to win in power conferences or to make runs in the NCAA Tournament. Sophomore Raymar Morgan has blossomed into a star, increasing his scoring average from 11 points per game to 17 points and seven rebounds per game this season. Center Goran Suton is a tested big man who can control the glass for the Spartans and provide scoring in the paint. And that's just the names you know. The Spartans also have impressive freshman point guard Kalin Lucas, who combines with Neitzel to form arguably the Big Ten's best back court tandem. There's also Flint, Michigan native Marquise Gray taking up quality minutes at forward and freshman guard Durrell Summers.

The Spartans' depth, which goes beyond the names listed above, gives Izzo the luxury of playing with different match ups, keeping pressure on defensively and pushing the basketball.

And the Spartans' 12-1 record can't be written off as the product of a cupcake-filled schedule. You might remember the embarrassing exhibition loss to Grand Valley State, but that is a long ways back in Michigan State's rear view mirror. Since the games started to count, the Spartans have played four ranked teams—UCLA, BYU, Texas and North Carolina State—and their only misstep came in Los Angeles. Make no mistake, the Gophers will have their hands full Saturday night.

What needs to happen for the Gophers to win:

** Dan Coleman must be the aggressor offensively and lead the Gophers. He has a tendency to disappear against top-notch competition. On Saturday, Coleman needs to be Minnesota's answer to Raymar Morgan.

** Minnesota's guards need to protect the basketball, get the team into its sets offensively and create turnovers. That's a tall task for freshman Al Nolen and Lawrence McKenzie, who is being forced to play out of position at point guard. If the Gophers are forced to start their offensive sets well beyond the three point line—as was the case at UNLV—it's going to be a long night for Minnesota.

** Spencer Tollackson needs to be the capable big man we all thought he could be.

** Blake Hoffarber, Jamal Abu-Shamala, Lawrence McKenzie and Lawrence Westbrook need to hit from the perimeter to stretch the Spartans' defense.

** Damian Johnson and Jon Williams need to provide smart, energy-filled minutes off the bench. That means rebounding and blocking shots.

And even if all of that happens, the Gophers will still be long shots to win in East Lansing. As someone who wants to measure the progress of this team, I'll be pleased if the Gophers remain competitive. The first Tubby v. Izzo battle in the Big Ten has the potential to be very lopsided. I'll predict an MSU win by 15, a result I'd actually be rather impressed by.

After the opener, the Gophers head into two winnable games—at home against Northwestern and at Penn State. After that, the schedule gets quite tough again as Indiana comes to town before Izzo and the Spartans come to the Barn for a rematch. If the Gophers are 3-2 after the first five Big Ten games, we'll all have a lot to cheer about.

The game is on the Big Ten Network at 7 p.m. central time. I'm going to attempt to live blog the game, so if you lack access to the BTN, I'll try to entertain you here.

Big Ten Opener: Sparty Talks Some Trash

It's one thing for our own bloggers to make fun of our mascot, it's quite another for a blogger from Michigan State to take aim at Smilin' Goldy the Gopher.

You see, John at SpartyMSU blog is so worried about the Big Ten opener, and Tubby Smith's upstart Gophers coming to East Lansing, that the safest shot he could take at our troops was to belittle their mascot. Here's John's blasphemous take on Goldy.

they are Not fierce, Not scary, Not Masculine….. The Choice of this Mascot Kind of reminds me of the Banana Slugs of UC Santa Cruz.. or the Big Green Pine trees of Stanford.. or the Delta State University Fighting Okra. Goldie Gopher on the Football field side lines was about a worth wile as the Fighting Pickles of North Carolina School of the Arts. Frankly.. Goldie looks more like the Might Mouse Cartoon than a Gopher

This of course comes from a fan of a team who's mascot wears a freaking skirt. Just saying. And in this picture Sparty is showing off some serious leg. Stay hot, Sparty.

Mascots aside, the MSU-Minnesota opener presents a very tough test for Tubby's Gophers. The way Spencer Tollackson has been playing would indicate that MSU junior center Goran Suton will be able to at the very least neutralize our center. Meanwhile, Minnesota's best offensive player, Dan Coleman, can very likely be neutralized by MSU's Raymar Morgan.

And as we've learned during the losses at Florida State and UNLV, the Gophers struggle mightily with teams that have capable back courts. Michigan State meets that criteria with Drew Neitzel, who has an impressive 4.29 to 1 assist to turnover ration this season. With the guard play of Neitzel and the offensive and rebounding capabilities of Suton and Morgan, and MSU presents perhaps the biggest challenge for Minnesota yet.

John asked how the Gophers are going to match-up. .... Well, I'd say poorly. When we came to East Lansing last year, Lawrence McKenzie and Dan Coleman led us in scoring. Now, McKenzie's offense has gone by the wayside to play the point guard spot and Coleman, while showing flashes of brilliance, disappears against top notch competition.

Finally, John writes: "Help me out Charlie.. whats the word from the Great White North… ?? You see them going better than 4th to 6th place?"

John, we'd love a 4th to 6th place finish. No one in Minnesota is delusional enough to think the Gophers can compete for a Big Ten title this season. But an upper echelon Big Ten finish would be a vast improvement from last season and indicate the difference Tubby has made. But the Gophers aren't in the class right now of the Spartans, Hoosiers or Badgers. We'd love a 4th place finish, which would likely mean an NCAA bid.

I do have a couple questions for SpartyMSU. .... What's the deal with Isiah Dahlman, who was a product of Braham, Minnesota. He's now a sophomore and still playing sparingly? Will he get his chance eventually? How has he looked when on the floor?

How good do Michigan State fans think this team is? Do fans see this as one of Izzo's best teams? Is Neitzel good enough to lead the Spartans to a Big Ten title and a deep tourney run?

After the Gophers were embarrassed at UNLV last weekend, don't expect Tubby's team to allow themselves to be walked over again. And if Dan Coleman shows up, and Lawrence McKenzie can run the offense AND score, the Gophers could put a scare into the Spartans.