Hoffarber Hangover, And A Look At Illinois

So, what a night! I was so riled up I had a hard time getting to sleep. I wonder what it must have been like for Minnesota's buzzer-beater extraordinaire and his jubilant teammates.

This post will both take a look at what is being said about last night's stunner and also preview the Illinois semi-final today. Yes, semi-final. The Gophers are in the semi-finals.

First, a look at what what is being said across the country. Links below are a snippet of the coverage after last night's thriller. (I tried to limit this because there is loads of commentary. But if you see anything else good, please add it in the comments).

Gopher Nation: Breaking Down the Box
Inside the Hall: Did that just happen? Yes it did.
Larry Brown Sports: Blake Hoffarber the new Laettner.
Yet Another Basketball Blog: Jaw Dropping Ending.
CBSSports: Standing Up, Sitting Down, Hoffarber's Best Around.
Indianapolis Star (Bob Kravitz): More than loss, IU is lost.
ESPN (Pat Forde): Minnesota's miracle worker makes his second shot for the ages.
Indianapolis Star (Terry Hutchens): Final play negates IU comeback.
Down with Goldy: March to a title, Game 2 (Praises Blake for comments to Erin Andrews!)

Ilinois vs. Minnesota
Gametime: Approximately 4 p.m. eastern time.
Television: CBS
Announcers: Jim Nantz and Billy Packer

OK, now that the morning coffee has went down, let's start talking about Illinois. Yes, that Illinois. The 10-seed that has somehow beaten the Gophers 19 straight times. That is, obviously, the longest of any such streak in the Big Ten.

To be fair, Illinois has had some very good teams in recent years. Bill Self built a mini-juggernaut and Bruce Weber inherited a very solid group. But this year's version of Illini, in part because of lackluster recruiting on Weber's part, took multiple steps backward. That's not to say the Illini don't have some talent, but only that Weber wasn't able to reload with blue chippers.

Illinois, like Minnesota, has senior leaders. Shaun Pruitt, a thick, banging center leads the team with 12.8 points and 7 rebounds per game. He's a tough match up for Minnesota because he's too quick for Tollackson and too bruising for Coleman. (I got an idea, how bout we throw Travis Busch at him!)

Brian Randle is another senior forward, who is sort of like Illinois version of Dan Coleman, except not as skilled offensively. But Randle plays incredibly hard, and along with Pruitt forms an experienced front line that like DJ White and Deandre Thomas, will be tough for Minnesota's depleted front line.

And then there is junior Trent Meachem, Gopher Killer. In two games against Minnesota this season, Meachem has scored 19 and 21 points respectively. In the most recent match-up, Meachem killed Minnesota from three point land, as the Gophers tried to exploit Illinois' tendency to shoot a low percentage from outside.

That has been twenty-win Tubby's strategy against Illinois in two games this season. Because the Illini shot a league-worst percentage from three point land in the conference on the season, Tubby has put the Gophers in a 2-3 zone for much of the time against Illinois. In both games, it backfired. In the regular season finale at Illinois, the Illini shot 53 percent from three. And earlier in the season, when Illinois came into Wiliams Arena and blew the Gophers out 84-60, the Illini shot, again, 53 percent. Meachem was 5-5.

So, here's hoping the Gophers employ a different strategy today. All season the Gophers have been at their best when they were playing a ferocious man to man defense. At times, the effort wasn't always there. But against Indiana it was, and the guards were able to stymie Eric Gordon and the Indiana guards. I think a similar strategy, including some full court pressure, would be wise today.

Keys:

1. Will Spencer Tollackson play? I've had so many bum ankles and when its tender (as I imagine Spencer's is) you can play if you can withstand the pain. He won't be able to elevate (but he never really could anyway). The question is, are the Gophers better off without him? Nah, he can give good minutes. Perhaps he helps us more in a limited role when he doesn't force shots on the interior.

2. Foul trouble. Even if Tollackson plays, the Gophers will have three healthy and one gimpy big men. Dan Coleman picked up two fouls in two minutes of each half against Indiana. That's inexcusable. The Gophers need him on the floor for 30+ minutes, not almost 10. Same goes for Damian Johnson and Jon Williams. The bangers need to bang but use their fouls wisely.

3. Another scoring option: In two Big Ten Tournament games, the Gophers have had someone step up. Against Northwestern, it was Lawrence Westbrook who put the team on his back during a second half comeback. Against Indiana, it was Damian Johnson who took some of the scoring load off of seniors McKenzie and Coleman. Someone needs to step up again.

4. Consistent play from Al Nolen: The freshman point guard continues to have moments of brilliance and moments of shear ineptitude. He needs to play even, and realize he's not an outside shooter. He needs to get the Gophers into their offense quickly and not turn the ball over.

5. Finally, scoring out of the press break. In two games this year the Illlini have thrown the Gophers a relatively mundane 2-2-1, three-quarter court press. The Gophers have been happy to methodically bring the ball up against the Illini, only on occasion looking to exploit the trapping zone for easy baskets. If the Gophers don't beat the press, beat it easily and score off of it, the Illini will dictate tempo as they have in the two previous games.

Prediction: Both teams are likely exhausted. As emotional as the Minnesota win was, Illinois went to overtime to beat Purdue. The Gophers can beat Illinois and there is no better time to get the monkey off of their back than in the conference semi-finals. I look for McKenzie to come up big, and Westbrook to play with the chip on his shoulder he did against Northwestern and against Indiana in spurts Friday night. Minnesota 62, Illinois 58.

Keys For Gophers Against Indiana

When the Gophers tip off at 9pm eastern time tonight (or thereabouts), the Indiana Hoosiers will be looking to beat the Gophers for the third time this season. A common cliche tells us that is no easy task, but given the talent differential, the Hoosiers would have a decided advantage no matter how many times in a row they had beaten Minnesota.

Eric Gordon is the best player in the Big Ten. While the Gophers have actually done better than most in slowing him on offense, he found numerous ways to beat the Gophers in the teams meeting most recently at Assembly Hall. While Gordon's shot wasn't falling, he'd penetrate and get himself to the foul line. Or, he'd penetrate and quickly adjust to the collapsing defense and kick to a wide open three point shooter.

Key #1 for the Gophers tonight is to keep Gordon in front of them. This is no easy task. He's shifty, deceptively quick and the Gophers don't have the type of shut-down defender needed to stop all parts of Gordon's game. Lawrence Westbrook drew the defensive match up in the last meeting most of the time and he did well to force Gordon to use the dribble. That's all well and good, but the Gophers either need to rotate much more efficiently when Gordon penetrates and kicks or Westbrook needs to both force Gordon to dribble and keep him in front. Limiting Gordon might be the biggest key tonight. We won't be able to stop him completely, but if we can limit his outside shooting and rebounding some, the Gophers have a chance.

Key #2 for the Gophers is finding a way to keep up with DJ White and company on the glass. With Spencer Tollackson iffy at best, the Gophers will have to rely on two forwards not known for banging in Dan Coleman and Damian Johnson. Jon Williams will be the biggest body we can throw out there, but he is prone to so many mistakes in other aspects of the game. That means all five players need to crash the boards defensively the way Westbrook, Blake Hoffarber, Al Nolen and others did in the second half against Northwestern. In Indiana, the Hoosiers killed the Gophers on second chance points. If that happens again, the Gophers have no chance.

Key #3 for the Gophers is offensive consistency. Playing 10 to 20 minutes of miserable basketball might not kill you against a team like Northwestern. It will against Indiana. And this is most important on the offensive end. The Gophers need to create offense early, be aggressive, draw contact and get to the line. Dan Coleman, Lawrence Westbrook and Lawrence McKenzie need to get going quickly. If those three are all in double digits, the Gophers have a decent shot at making the upset. The Gophers also need to have in inside presence. That means giving the ball to Coleman or Johnson in the post. We can't be completely perimeter oriented against the Hoosiers.

Key #4 for the Gophers is coaching. Tubby Smith has so much more experience than Dan Dakich that he really ought to be able to coach circles around the interim Indiana head man. Maybe we'll see this play out with the Gophers switching up defenses regularly, doubling Gordon or White when necessary and simply managing the game. Pay close attention to the first five minutes of each half and the last five minutes of the first half. Who is controlling the tempo here? Who wastes momentum building possessions and which coach best manages the game? It better be Tubby!

Finally, key #5 is passion. The first half against Northwestern was beyond distressing. It was one thing, inexcusable though it was, for Dan Coleman to get beat on multiple back doors. It was quite another for the entire team to be flat for 20 minutes. This is the Big Ten Tournament fellas, it's time to lay it all out there. On Every Possession. Indiana is sort of down on its luck, and could be prone for an upset. It won't happen if the Gophers don't play every possession as if it were there last.

Prediction: I've twice picked the Gophers to upset Indiana this season and twice I've been so wrong. Hopefully I'll be wrong again here because I'm picking the Hoosiers. The Gophers have still not but together 40 full minutes of strong play and have yet to do what it takes to upset anyone. It's hard to predict that will start tonight. Pick: Indiana 65, Minnesota 58.

Gophers' DNA Portends Tourney Fate

The Gophers are what they are: An average team with mostly average players, that doesn't play up or down to the competition but takes care of business against lightweights and falters during crunch time against legitmate competition.

While that's clearly not a description of a team that has captured the minds of the Minnesota sports world, it demonstrates drastic improvement from one season ago and gives us hope moving forward. But it doesn't give us much hope this weekend as the Big Ten Tournament kicks off in Indianapolis.

The Gophers enter the tournament as the 6th seed and will face perennial bottom-feeder Northwestern at 5 p.m. eastern time Thursday night on ESPN2. Should the Gophers beat Northwestern for the third time this season, they'll head to a Friday night match-up with Indiana, a team that is struggling despite its late season dispatching of our Gophers.

As Gophers fans we can sit back and think positively about a conference tournament run, but what is most likely to happen is the Gophers will throttle Northwestern and play tough with Indiana for three-quarters of the game before disappearing offensively down the stretch. That's not intended as a criticism of the Gophers, I've come to realize that this team's DNA maps out that sort of fate.

It's been somewhat surprising that this team has been unable to pull off just one victory over a more talented opponent. Many previous average or worse Minnesota teams have used the homecourt advantage Williams Arena provides to propel forward to an upset. Not these Gophers. Maybe it's nerves. Maybe learning how to win games they shouldn't is going to take some time. Maybe in crunch time, Minnesota's lack of big time talent takes it's toll. Whatever the justification, don't expect a miracle run from the Gophers this weekend. They are what they are, and after almost a decade of absolute futility, a year of averagness actually goes down fairly well.

** A link to the Big Ten Tournament bracket is here.