Tubby Ball Year In Review: The Final Chapter

PJS Note: This is the final chapter in a five-part series looking back at the first season of Tubby Ball at the University of Minnesota. Previously, we looked at the play of the three seniors, offense and defense under Tubby and player progression. Today, we give out grades to each of the non-seniors for their 2007-08 campaigns.

Part V: Grading the Players and Projecting to 2008-09

If I were a teacher, my fictional students probably wouldn't like me much. I'm probably overly critical and have never been good at giving compliments just so someone feels good. So, keep that in mind as you go through my year-end grades for the Gophers men's basketball team. Yes, I know it is about nine months since the season ended, but my procrastination on this can be summed up by stating that there is no sports season I enjoy more than college hoops. Ending this series, for me, ends my coverage of the 2007-08 Gophers. ***Tears***

Now, on to each non-senior, their grades, and a projection for the year(s) to come.

Jonathan Williams: Like almost all of the Minnesota big men, Williams, a St. Cloud native, struggled with Tubby Smith's demands to play more aggressive basketball. Reports came out that Williams played a dominating brand of basketball in practice. But once the ball was tipped in meaningful games, Williams oftentimes played a soft brand of basketball Dan Coleman would endorse. Statistically, you could argue he regressed. He started eight games as a sophomore, and only three as a senior. His minutes declined by about two minutes on average. His scoring dropped a point and he corralled one fewer rebound per game. Defensively, however, Williams was usually up to the task. He did well manning up DJ White in the Big Ten Tournament when Spencer Tollackson was out with an injury. And he showed flashes of being able to produce offensively, but he also showed many more signs of being slightly overwhelmed by the competition. At 6'9, 285, Williams should be a bruiser on the interior. He seldom was, and has never been able to establish a low post offensive game.

Grade: C-

2008-09: Look for Williams' minutes to increase slightly as a senior and he might even see a starting role while the incoming players progress. Don't expect him to turn into anything resembling an offensive threat. However, if all he is asked to do is play solid defense, the Gophers could do worse.

Jamal Abu-Shamala: Speaking of statistical regression, this junior from Shakopee went from 23.7 minutes per game to just over 13. He shot 43 percent (44-102) from three under Monson/Molinari in 2006-07 but that production fell dramatically to 34 percent (21-61) in 07-08. Abu-Shamala's game didn't change. He was a three point specialist who couldn't create his shot under Monson and he was the same thing under Tubby Smith. A couple things changed, however. The Gophers didn't want to settle for the perimeter shot as often under Tubby Smith. And Tubby Smith seemed to covet multi-dimensional players who could take the ball to the basket. Abu-Shamala couldn't do that. But his minutes also declined because of the arrival of Blake Hoffarber, a similar player with slightly greater athletic ability. Abu-Shamala seemed to be the biggest Gophers cheerleader even when he rode the pine. Because of that we have tremendous respect for the senior-to-be, even if we cringe when he touches the ball in the open floor.
Grade: D

2008-09: Expect his minutes to decline even more, though he'll surely come in against Northwestern and light up the Wildcats.

Travis Busch: Some will disagree, but I will continue to argue that the Cal Poly transfer and Mounds View native doesn't have the talent to compete in the Big Ten. If intensity and toughness were quantifiable, however, Busch would certainly have what it takes. Tubby Smith often turned to Busch when he needed just that. It's kind of starting that at 6'4, 220, Busch was Minnesota's most physical player when he was on the floor. He manned up Indiana's mammoth center. He sacrificed his body for loose balls and battled for rebounds. Early in the season I cringed when Busch came on the floor, but he soon earned his playing time. Simply put, Busch did what he was asked to do, and that wasn't to score, block shots, make great passes or dominate the boards. He was asked to provide occasional energy and toughness. On that score he delivered.

Grade: B

2008-09: Expect his minutes to be exceedingly minimal but for him to do everything he can do get the job done once he is on the floor.

Damian Johnson: No Minnesota player as large a step forward as did Monson recruit Damian Johnson. An afterthought in 2006-07, Johnson became Minnesota's best shot-blocker, defensive player and arguably its best rebounder. A tweener type, Johnson took minutes at both small forward and power forward. He showed a surprising ability to play on the inside against the Big Ten's big men and on the perimeter against slashing forwards. In my mind, Johnson was this team's MVP. He ran the floor, showed signs of developing an outside shot and a back-to-the-basket game. He needs to firm up his outside shot and his free throw shooting--55 percent won't get it done--but if he can take a similar step forward this upcoming season as he did under the first year of Tubby Smith, the sky is the limit.

Grade: A

2008-09: I expect Johnson to be a leader on the new Gophers team and to have solidified either his perimeter shot or his interior game. If he can add both, he will be the closest thing the Gophers have had in awhile to an all-around player. He will likely start, and he's earned it.

Kevin Payton: The would-be junior from Camden, NJ regressed more than any player in Tubby Smith's first year on the sidelines. And maybe it's not that he regressed, but that he was identified as a liability on the court. After playing in all 31 games, and starting 14, as a freshman, Payton received the dreaded DNP-Coaches Decision in seven Big Ten games. Payton was tentative all season. He had no confidence in his shot and shot a disastrous 15 percent from three point land. He couldn't seem to handle high-intensity pressure in the back court, failed to get the Gophers into the offense and really, provided nothing, other than an occasional spurt of solid defensive play. To his credit, Payton kept a smile on his face at least publicly. That said, he was highly over matched and Tubby Smith knew it.

Grade: F

2008-09: If Payton wants more minutes he'll need to dramatically improve his ball-handling, decision making, outside shot and just about every other facet of his game.

Lawrence Westbrook: For a player who was stung with the reputation as a prep player as being selfish and a ball-hog, Westbrook certainly hasn't lived up to that hype. Good, right? Kinda, I suppose. It's never good to have a me-first player on your team, but the Gophers could benefit from Westbrook taking the team on his shoulders an providing the scoring lift he's capable of more often. Westbrook started all 34 games as a sophomore. He shot 42 percent from the floor, 39 percent from three and averaged 8.5 points per game. He also proved to be a very solid defender, a trait that probably earned him the playing time that Tubby Smith gave him. Perhaps it is because he was a sophomore, or because Coleman and McKenzie were the first two scoring options, but Westbrook was a tad streaky. However, the Hoffarber Miracle doesn't happen if Westbrook doesn't put the Gophers on his back after for a career-high 17 points in the Big Ten tourney opener against Northwestern.

Grade: B+

2008-09: If Westbrook can look for his own shot more often, and take the ball to the basket more often and have success at it, he could be the Gophers' leading scorer this upcoming season.

Al Nolen: Defensively, Al Nolen played like a savvy fifth-year senior. Offensively, Nolen played like a raw high school kid. He led the Gophers with 64 steals. He also missed the rim quite a bit and shot 29 percent from three. Coupled with the poor perimeter shooting, Nolen also never displayed a knack for penetrating defenses either to score or to draw defenders and dish. Thrust into a role as Minnesota's only true point guard, Nolen did as well as anyone could have predicted. He kept his composure and ran Minnesota's offense, if he didn't propel it with his own scoring. And he sparked Minnesota's full-court defense. Overall, Nolen was a pleasant surprise in 2007-08, even if it is clear he has plenty to work on.

Grade: B

2008-09: Because Tubby Smith was unable to land a point guard in the incoming class, look for Nolen to start and perhaps split time at the position with incoming combo-guard Devoe Joseph. If Nolen can improve his outside shot, look for his game to explode. A decent outside shot should open up lanes to penetrate, drive and kick. If he's not shooting 1,000 shots per day, he should be.

Blake Hoffarber: The Hopkins grad is what he is: A spot up shooter with a deadly outside touch and a flare for the dramatic. We will never forget the Hoffarber Miracle against Indiana. And his 42.7 percent (70-164) set a freshman record at the U. On many nights, Hoffarber was the first player off the bench, giving the Gophers some much-needed instant offense. When he was able to get free off of screens and in transition he provided that punch. When defenders didn't give him an inch, Hoffarber was typically unable to create his own shot by running off of screens, penetrating or creating space any other way. Defensively, Hoffarber wasn't exactly a liability, but he wasn't a game changer either. When applying full-court pressure, Hoffarber was more often than not on the bench.

Grade: B-

2008-09: Unless Hoffarber can dramatically increase his quickness, he will continue to be a lights-out three point shooter when the Gophers can get him space. He'll need to learn how to more efficiently run himself off screens and set up his defenders. However, if all he is is a guy who makes 70 threes a year and can't do much else offensively, I think we'll take that.

Final Analysis: Tubby Smith did more with the talent he had on the roster then even I thought was possible. The Gophers won 20 games, finished in the upper-half of the Big Ten and played more defense in 2007-08 then in the entire Monson/Molinari era. Tubby Smith brought a new attitude to the Gophers, and while the roster still has some dead weight on it, Tubby was able to maximize what he did have. Who would have thought Damian Johnson would mature into a game changer? Certainly not me.

Hoffarber's Heroics, Johnson's Tenacity Lead To Upset

"Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in."

Michael Corleone, Godfather III.

I wrote this team off earlier this week. I said something like "They are what they are," suggesting they can beat cupcakes and can't pull off an upset.

I wrote this team off tonight. After building a huge lead and causing havoc on my emotions in an up and down second half, the Gophers all but handed the game to DJ White and the Indiana Hoosiers.

And then Blake Hoffarber, he of ESPY fame, hit a shot that no Minnesota fan will ever forget. The Gophers shouldn't have been down 58-57 with 1.5 seconds left, but they were. So, Tubby Smith diagrammed a play to get down the court and get a desperation shot off. He diagrammed a play for Dan Coleman. Travis Busch lofted a pass. Hoffarber rose adjacent to the foul line, caught the lob pass, pivoted to his left, and put up a high arcing prayer.

It was answered and the Gophers did what they couldn't do all season, and something they hadn't done in years: Upset a favored, ranked opponent. Final: Minnesota 59, Indiana 58. It took a Laettner-esque play, but we'll take it!

Hoffarber's heroics caused the Minnesota bench to explode. Lawrence McKenzie, Lawrence Westbrook, and everyone else, swarmed Hoffarber in the far corner of the gymnasium. Tubby Smith, ohhhhh, Tubby Smith, the man can jump. He leaped with joy, probably shocked, and was quickly surrounded by Vince Taylor and a jubiliantly round Joe Esposito. All because a freshman sharpshooter had given his team a ticket to play another meaningful game.

And while Hoffarber will steal the highlights on the various networks and the headlines in the papers tomorrow, what might get overlooked is the Gophers played, undermanned mind you, their best game of the season. They jumped out to a 16 point lead in the first half. How?

Amazingly, with Spencer Tollackson sitting out with a bum ankle, the Gophers beat up on Indiana on the glass in the first half. And what makes this even more miraculous is Dan Coleman found himself on the bench just two minutes into the game. That left Damian Johnson and Jon Williams to play big minutes against Indiana's tough front line. They couldn't stop DJ White, but along with a group of guards that battled and won the war on the boards in the first half.

The Gophers had twice the energy of the Hoosiers in the early going. Lawrence McKenzie was flying around and hitting in transition. Johnson scored seven of the first nine points and played the role Lawrence Westbrook did against Northwestern a day earlier. Johnson finished with 17 points, a career-high, and he created multiple second chance opportunities that were very needed down the stretch.

Indiana eventually calmed down. Interim head coach Dan Dakich went to a big lineup, as both Coleman and Johnson found themselves on the bench with foul trouble. Deandre Thomas--who reminds me a lot of a slimmer Oliver Miller--played huge minutes alongside DJ White. It was during the second 10 minutes of the first half that Thomas and White carried the Hoosiers back into the game. It was hard for them to do anything but exploit Minnesota's size disadvantage.

Consider the lineup we were playing at this point: Westbrook, McKenzie, Nolen, Travis Busch and Williams. Yes, Travis Busch. Don't laugh. His minutes were huge. Tubby first tried Jamal Abu-Shamala in this role. JAS quickly showed he didn't have the mettle to battle with the IU big men. Busch did.

Despite all of that hard work in the first half, Indiana crept back in the game. Down seven at halftime, the Hoosiers scored the first seven of the second half--the Gophers went scoreless for about the first five minutes. But then the Gophers settled down--despite Dan Coleman picking up two more quick fouls.

Again it was Johnson creating hustle scores. McKenzie rose for a clutch three. And all of a sudden we were in crunch time, and despite our best efforts to give the Hoosiers the game, the Gophers walked out victorious.

In reality, the Gophers should have won by five or so. Up two with 10 seconds left, Al Nolen found a wide open Coleman under the basket. Instead of going up strong, Coleman reverted to his tendency to play soft and tried to sneak a layup passed DJ White. It wasn't happening. White blocked the shot. After a timeout, Eric Gordon drove the length of the floor and drew a foul with 3.5 left on the clock. He missed both free throws, but White pushed Williams out of his way and tipped in the rebound and drew a foul. All of a sudden it's 57-57 with 3.1 left and White with a chance to give the Hoosiers the lead. But .... he missed. Whew.

Not really. White goes over the back of McKenzie and gets his own rebound and the zebras decided that McKenzie had fouled White. Two more tries to ice it. First shot? Miss. Second? Make.

And just when I had written this team off yet again, Hoffarber delivers unexpected heroics I'll never forget.

Some Likely Repetitive Superlatives:

Damian Johnson: He hit from the outside. He made his free throws. He threw his body on the floor for loose balls. He did this playing almost every minute out sized at the power forward position. If Lawrence Westbrook was the surprise player who carried Minnesota versus Northwestern, it was Johnson who picked up the slack against Indiana. Johnson scored a career-high 17 points before fouling out late in the second half. Ya'll understand why I loved him all season?

Travis Busch: I know, I know, I'm part of the peanut gallery who questions why he ever plays. But with Tollackson out, with Coleman in quick foul trouble in each half, with Williams, Coleman and Johnson each with four fouls, it was Busch who came in and battle with Deandre Thomas and DJ White. Jabal Abu-Shamala had his chance, but he refused to play physical. Not Busch. This guy was game. He made at least one brain dead pass, but his hustle and his willingness to throw his body into much bigger men was quite impressive.

Hustle: All around. 40 minutes. For the first time all season. Great to see.

Some criticisms

Dan Coleman: He picked up two quick--like in two minutes--first half fouls and sat the remainder of the half. Second half, different story, right? Wrong. Two minutes. This time two absolutely silly fouls. He hammered DJ White on a clear breakaway on one of them. Young man gotsta play smarter than that. Worse, perhaps, is with the game on the line, at the end of a scrambled possessions with 10 seconds left in the game with the Gophers up 57-55, Al Nolen found Coleman with a clear path to the basket. Coleman ducked, went up weak, and found a waiting DJ White to send his shot back. Coleman takes this ball up strong. Takes it up to throw it down and the game would have been over.

One Man Back: Multiple times tonight the Gophers gave the Hoosiers easy hoops on breakouts. I imagine this happened in part because the Gophers were concentrating on crashing the boards because they were without big men most of the night. Nonetheless, these are mental mistakes and need to be corrected.

Up Next: The Gophers face those pesky 10th seeded Illinois Illini for the right to play in the Big Ten title game. Minnesota #6 vs. Illinois #10. Minnesota favored, right? Wrong. Illinois has beaten Minnesota an astonishing 19 straight times. Nevermind the cliche about beating teams three straight times. Try 20? I'll try and recoup for a preview in the morning, and the Gophers ought to be doing the same. They are back on the floor Saturday afternoon for a chance to play for the Big Ten championship.



Just when I thought they were done .....

Skid Hits Three In Loss At OSU

All you needed to watch was the first five to 10 minutes of the men's basketball game to know the Gophers didn't deserve a Big Ten road win Saturday at Value City Arena in Columbus. The Ohio State Buckeyes jumped out to an 11-0 lead and eventually led 19-3, a margin that would dwindle at times but never be overcome by a sloppy Gophers team that eventually lost 75-60.

While the Buckeyes shot well and played hard for 40 minutes, the Gophers have only themselves to blame for falling behind by such a wide margin at the beginning of the game. The Buckeyes started the game in a 2-2-1 three-quarter court press that the Gophers' starters didn't seem prepared for. No Gopher seemed ready to flash into the middle of the zone press. Minnesota guards seemed willing to dribble right into traps in the corner right across the half-court line. The Gophers either weren't ready for the press or they didn't execute their press break well.

So it was during the first ten or so minutes that the Gophers would give the Buckeyes easy baskets. As their confidence grew, OSU's outside shots from Evan Turner and Jamar Butler began to fall. Pretty soon, the Gophers were on the verge of being run out of the gym.

But give the Gophers credit for not quitting. They surely learned at Penn State that no lead is insurmountable. The Gophers did fight back, trimming the lead to 10 at halftime. Much of that can be credited to Lawrence Westbrook, who stepped up and hit three three pointers to loosen Ohio State's zone—which by the way did a tremendous job pressuring our front court.

In the second half the Gophers came roaring back. All of a sudden Minnesota was getting easy baskets off of turnovers. The Gophers pulled within 44-41 with this lineup: Spencer Tollackson, Dan Coleman, Damian Johnson, Westbrook and Lawrence McKenzie. But then all hell broke loose. Johnson picked up a ticky-tack foul—he eventually fouled out—and went to the bench. Minutes later Tubby sat Westbrook and McKenzie, likely for a breather, and substituted Al Nolen and Blake Hoffarber.

It was at this point when the Gophers' comeback hopes were thwarted once and for all. Nolen and Hoffarber couldn't handle the perimeter defensive pressure. Inexplicably, Nolen repeatedly picked up his dribble way too far beyond the arc. With less than 10 minutes left in the half, and the margin within striking distance, it was the group led by our much-heralded freshman that gave the game right back.

Turnovers have been a boon to Minnesota's success this season, but on this night the Buckeyes at least evened the playing field—both teams committed 17 turnovers. Likewise, the Gophers battled well on the glass, losing the war on the boards 38-34. But most impressively here is the fact Minnesota was able to secure 16 offensive rebounds. Most of the time they didn't convert on second chance opportunities, but getting those chances is an obvious improvement.

And while the Gophers can surely blame themselves for a poorly played road game, that shouldn't take anything away from the Buckeyes. Jamar Butler hurt the Gophers all evening, finishing the night with 27 points and nine assists. Turner added 17, including 3-6 from three.

Dan Coleman led the way offensively for Minnesota with 14 points. Coleman was slightly better on this night of being aggressive in the paint. But in other instances he seemed to revert to his tentative self. Lawrence McKenzie added 10 points and Hoffarber and Johnson added eight. Westbrook didn't score after his three first half triples.

The loss is Minnesota's third straight after starting conference play 2-1. Now at 2-4 in the conference, the Gophers have one large mountain to climb if they want to be considered an NCAA-worthy team.

Other Notable Happenings:

** Jamal Abu-Shamala played the first three minutes of the game, picked up two quick fouls, and never returned. (I missed the first minute of the second half, so it's plausible he played the first two minutes of the first half and one in the second).

** Kevin Payton played just two minutes, and they came in the second half when Tubby Smith needed to find a defensive replacement when Damian Johnson went to the bench.

** Stealing Payton's and AS' minutes was Travis Busch, who played an energy-filled, if athletically-challenged, 13 minutes. Busch managed to grab three rebounds, an impressive feat considering Jon Williams played 15 minutes with his almost 300 pound frame and didn't pull down one board.

** Tubby Smith received his first technical of the year after Busch was clearly pushed to the ground while grabbing a rebound on the defensive end. A blind official called Busch for traveling after he tumbled to the ground. This prompted Tubby to storm down towards Thad Matta's side of the court, ripping off his glasses while he angrily gave his two cents to the zebras.

** The Gophers blocked just one shot (it went to Johnson). Meanwhile, the Buckeyes sent eight shots back. Part of the reason for this is because when the Gophers penetrated or tried to score on the interior, they either double-clutched or faded if even just slightly.

** After missing last weekend's home game against Michigan State, Al Nolen played his worst game of the year. Nolen picked up the ball far too often when he should have kept his dribble alive and seemed somewhat rattled by an OSU crowd that didn't stop chanting "air ball" at the freshman after a bad first half miss. On the night, Nolen had zero points on an ugly 0-2 from the floor, and committed three turnovers. Let's not be so hard on Nolen. This team is asking for quite a bit from him.

** Hoffarber couldn't get his shot off and finished 1-7 from beyond the arc. He forced a couple threes and was rewarded with a couple bunnies to finish with eight points.

UP Next: Minnesota's front loaded schedule finally lightens up. The Gophers head to Ann Arbor Thursday night to face Michigan, one of the Big Ten's most beatable teams.

Making Room For Talent

It might sound callous, and it likely isn't a topic of conversation the athlete's in the Williams Arena locker room want to discuss, but for the Gophers to have the kind of instant turn around many of us are clamoring for, Tubby Smith might have to make some tough choices with his current roster.

Fact is, Dan Monson compiled a team with the talent level reminiscent of Division II basketball program. The Gophers' incoming class in 2008 includes three freshman, a sophomore and a junior. By all analysis, the class is primed to be the best we have seen since before Jan Gangelhoff-gate.

While that infusion of talent will work towards the type of turnaround we all expect, Tubby might need to be even more aggressive to dramatically increase the talent level of this team. And by that, I mean he might need to take away scholarships or kindly nudge a player towards a transfer. Here are some prime candidates to either return to walk-on status or to find a new home.

*** Jamal Abu-Shamala was a walk-on who busted his rear and eventually was rewarded a scholarship. No one can question Abu-Shamala's heart and desire. He wants to be a Golden Gopher. But he also came to the University knowing he wasn't scholarship material. Circumstances, however, allowed the Shakopee native a chance to play as a scholarship player. But now 17 games into Tubby's tenure, Abu-Shamala's minutes have dwindled. And if it wasn't clear before, Abu-Shamala is a one-dimensional player. Abu-Shamala is obviously a good kid, but for the Gophers to add top-level talent, it might be wise if he reverted back to walk-on status. He will be a senior next year, and it would be tough to take away his scholarship. But for the good of the program, it might be the best decision.

*** Travis Busch was a transfer from Cal-Poly who lucked into a scholarship after the departures of Brandon Smith and Bryce Webster. During his time in California, Busch quickly realized that he wanted to return home. After sitting out one season because of NCAA transfer rules, Busch has played sparingly for the Gophers this season. He's not adept enough at ball handling to play on the perimeter and at 6'4", Busch isn't long enough to play inside. He's not even a tweener. He's a guard who lacks the quickness to play at this level. If Tubby Smith wants to quickly turn this program around, Busch is another candidate to revert to walk-on status.

*** Kevin Payton is a product of Camden, NJ, who was recruited by Jim Molinari and was expected to be a key recruit for Dan Monson when he signed in late 2004. Before Payton dislocated his shoulder during his senior year in New Jersey, the combo-guard was averaging about 30 points per game. But as a Gopher, any offensive talent Payton possesses has been nowhere to be found. He's tentative with the basketball. He doesn't appear to have mastered some basic basketball fundamentals like the jump stop. According to a Payton interview with Rivals (subscription required) from October 2004, the teams after him were Pittsburgh, LaSalle, Binghamton and Penn State. Flash forward to Tubby's first recruiting class, and it's clear our new coach is after more substantial talent. With all of this in mind, it might be best for all parties if Payton decided to play out the remainder of his college career closer to home.

Following this season, the Gophers will also lose seniors Spencer Tollackson, Dan Coleman and Lawrence McKenzie to graduation. Those scholarships are already accounted for with the incoming class. In order to compete at the level we all desire, the Gophers need an even larger infusion of Big Ten caliber talent.

Right now, only three returning players for 2008-09 seem to be locks to have decent careers at Minnesota. Blake Hoffarber is the best pure shooter in the conference and deserves a roster spot even if he needs to work on diversifying his game. Al Nolen has proven he can play point guard at this level. And more than any other holdover from the Monson era, Damian Johnson stands out as someone who has grasped the aggressive philosophy of Tubby Smith. After those three--and the incoming recruits--the Gophers would be well served to find ways to bring in more top-notch talent.

With the thigh injury to Nolen, it's clear the Gophers could use another point guard. Depending on who you read, Devoe Joseph is either a shooting guard or a point guard. The 4-star guard has the ability to score in bunches, and it would seem he will be a good fit to replace McKenzie at the two spot. After that, the Gophers don't have anyone on the roster who can play the point. And with the graduations of Coleman and Tollackson, the Gophers lack inside depth. Ralph Sampson III and Colton Iverson will help in this regard, but Jon Williams and Damian Johnson aren't your ideal Big Ten bangers. Johnson is more suited to be a shut-down defender playing small forward and Williams, who will be a senior next year, hasn't been effective in long stretches.

While it's obvious the Gophers have some talent coming in, depth is going to be an issue in the coming years if Tubby Smith doesn't make some hard choices.